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ARCHIVED - Areas of Spain most dependent on tourism expect the worst economic effects of Covid
Vaccine optimism fuels expectations of a partial recovery in 2021
There is an abundance of optimism at present regarding the latest progress in the development of Covid-19 vaccines, but until they are proved to be effective and are made widely available the economic impact of the pandemic continues to be devastating in Spain, particularly, according to the latest report published by BBVA Research, in the Balearics and the Canary Islands.
This is due to the islands’ heavy economic dependence on international tourism, and the BBVA analysts forecast that in consequence GDP will drop in 2020 by as much as 20 per cent in the Balearics and 16 per cent in the Canaries. To a lesser degree the decimation of international tourism since March will also contribute to falls of over 11 per cent in the Mediterranean regions of Catalunya, Andalucía, the Comunidad Valenciana and Murcia, although with expectations rising of a recovery next year the same regions are also predicted to show the most significant “bounce-backs” in 2021.
The latest forecast issued by BBVA is for a drop in the GDP of the whole of Spain of 11.5 per cent this year, with further economic deceleration in the final quarter of 2020. This, the analysts say, will be partially compensated for by growth of 6 per cent in 2021, with the sharpest recoveries expected in the Balearics (10.5 per cent), the Canaries (8.5 per cent), Catalunya (6.3 per cent), the Comunidad Valenciana (6.3 per cent) and Galicia (6.2 per cent). The Region of Murcia is one of those expected to match the national average next year, while the slowest growth is forecast to occur in Madrid (5.4 per cent), Castilla-La Mancha (4.9 per cent) and Extremadura (4.5 per cent).
However, all of these projections are dependent on a number of factors which are susceptible to variation, and of course the key consideration will be how the pandemic develops or fails to develop when vaccines become a reality.