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ARCHIVED - BBVA says third wave will delay economic recovery in Spain
BBVA predict a bounce back in the economy later this year once vaccinations increase
The third wave of coronavirus infection which is sweeping across Spain and many other countries in Europe will further delay this country’s eventual economic recovery, according to the economic analysts of BBVA Research, whose forecast for growth in 2021 is considerably less optimistic than the estimate reached by the national government.
The BBVA analysts estimate that the pandemic-hit year of 2020 brought a drop of 11 per cent in Spain’s GDP, half a point lower than had been predicted, and that the economy will bounce back to the tune of 5.5 per cent during this year. Again this is half a point lower than previous estimates, but at the same time it is only just over half of the 9.8 per cent growth estimated in the latest government forecast.
Looking further ahead, BBVA forecast growth of another 7 per cent in 2022, but it will not be until the following year that the national economy returns to the level reached prior to the pandemic. This is due mainly to the damage done to certain sectors such as retail and hostelries, both of which have suffered forced closures during pandemic restrictions, and of course tourism and transport due to the restrictions on movement.
The experts observe a slower start to the year than had been expected, due no doubt to the third wave of contagion, but believe that by the summer and the second half of 2021 the economic climate will change after a significant proportion of the population has been vaccinated, with the arrival of European recovery funds stimulating the re-activation of production capacity which is currently not being put to full use.