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ARCHIVED - IMF: Spain will suffer a contraction of 12.8% of GDP in 2020, the deepest among advanced economies
A deeper recession in 2020 and slower recovery in 2021 is on the cards they say
It only took a little over two months for the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to be forced to revise its World Economic Outlook (WEO) and on Wednesday a new batch of projections were published in which Spain, together with Italy, are confirmed as the countries that will suffer the greatest recessions between the main advanced economies and emerging markets as a consequence of the covid-19 pandemic.
The institution has lowered its expectations by 4.8 percentage points from 8%, contemplating a contraction of 12.8% for gross domestic product (GDP) in Spain during 2020.
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"Compared to our forecast for April, we now project a deeper recession in 2020 and a slower recovery in 2021," they stated.
"It appears that there has been a greater impact than anticipated on activity in the first half of the year, with signs showing that voluntary distancing may have started even before confinements were imposed.
This also suggests a more gradual recovery in second half, since fear of contagion is likely to continue, "said the report by the Analysis Department.
The world economy is expected to undergo a contraction of 4.9% in 2020 (a decrease of 1.9 percentage points) followed by a partial recovery that will register positive growth of 5.4% in 2021.
The chief economist of the European Central Bank (ECB), Philip Lane, has also predicted on Wednesday that the euro area economy will return to the level of the end of 2019 at the end of 2022. The Irish banker has cooled expectations due to promising economic data that have been published recently, predicting a slower improvement in the economy.